DRAFT
Worked example

Sample Entry — Polar Expedition Cruise

The whole method run once, on a real setting: a healthy-ish older population at sea, days from care, using a genuine case log and the ship's actual kit.
Open the worksheet → The Gap Analysis worksheet has a “Load sample” button that fills in the findings below.
Why this case. A single older passenger with chest discomfort and near-syncope is the first scenario to run here. On this population the cardiovascular event is uncommon but carries most of the risk, so a case built around it drives the monitoring, the resuscitation drugs, the space, the reach-back and the evacuation decision while it stays a single patient. That is what a first smoke-test wants. The mass-casualty Zodiac capsize can wait until the ordinary case runs clean.

Step 1 · Mission profile

Population~110 passengers, mostly older, broadly healthy but not medically screened; ~50 crew and expedition staff (younger, working outdoors).
Duration~14-day polar itinerary, with daily shore landings by Zodiac.
Distance to careDays from a hospital; frequently >48 h from definitive care.
EvacuationHelicopter or diversion, both weather- and range-limited; sea state constrains any transfer.

Step 2 · The demand model (a real case log)

What does this population actually present with? A de-identified series of 1,169 unique encounters from contemporaneous physician logs across eight polar expedition vessels gives a concrete demand model. This is the log of cases that actually occurred, not a guess.

1,169encounters analysed
8expedition vessels
~42%respiratory + injury combined
~3%cardiovascular (rare, highest stakes)
Respiratory / upper-respiratory250 (21.4%)
Trauma / wound / injury246 (21.0%)
Seasickness / motion149 (12.7%)
Gastrointestinal106 (9.1%)
Musculoskeletal78 (6.7%)
Dermatologic61 (5.2%)
Cardiovascular38 (3.3%)
Eye32 (2.7%)
The five largest categories, respiratory, injury, seasickness, gastrointestinal and musculoskeletal, come to about 71% of all encounters. Cardiovascular sits at roughly 3% of visits, yet it has historically driven most onboard deaths. The smoke-test has to satisfy both facts at once: the everyday load that fills the clinic, and the rare event that decides whether anyone dies.

Step 3 · The kit present (Quark Expeditions, North Pole 2008)

The ship carried a real, par-level-tracked formulary aboard the icebreaker 50 Years of Victory. It holds the everyday load in depth and keeps a lighter resuscitation core for the rare emergency. Here is a representative slice of the actual inventory, with item, dose and target par:

SectionActual line items (selected, with par targets)
Resus / ALS coreAdrenaline 1:10,000 prefilled (target 10) and 1:1,000; lidocaine PFS; atropine 0.5 mg/ml PFS; furosemide; methylprednisolone; dexamethasone; glucose 50%; haloperidol; activated charcoal.
RespiratoryThroat lozenges (52; target 18 boxes); pseudoephedrine (target 200); guaifenesin syrup; prednisone (target 100); albuterol MDI + aerochamber; salbutamol nebs (target 20); duo-nebs; diphenhydramine oral (target 50) and IV.
GastrointestinalAntacid (target 100); ranitidine (target 100); omeprazole; lomotil (target 100) / loperamide; bisacodyl; glycerin suppositories; enema; Anusol; haemoccult cards.
Analgesia / MSKAspirin 325 mg (target 200); ibuprofen 400 mg (target 300); paracetamol 500 mg (target 400); ketorolac injectable.
AntimicrobialsAmoxicillin (target 100); cephalexin (target 100); dicloxacillin; plus the broader oral set.

Note the depth: paracetamol targeted at 400, ibuprofen 300, decongestant 200. The kit is built to stock for the load. The question the smoke-test asks is whether it also holds, and can find fast, the compact resuscitation core for the rare cardiac event.

Step 4 · What was actually used

The same logs show what was given. Three over-the-counter agents, promethazine, ibuprofen and paracetamol, account for over a third of all prescribing between them; wound care and splinting are the procedural workload. That confirms the demand model and tells you which sections of the kit must never run dry.

Most-used medicationsn%
Promethazine (oral + IM) — antiemetic / motion16513.4
Ibuprofen15512.6
Paracetamol / acetaminophen14111.4
Throat lozenge735.9
Cough preparation (guaifenesin/dextromethorphan)463.7
Antidiarrhoeal (loperamide/diphenoxylate)433.5
Wound dressing / gauze (procedure)584.7
Splint / brace / sling (procedure)473.8

Step 5 · Run the smoke-test

Scenario, delivered VEMS-first with the laminated cards, then walked into the real ship's hospital: an older passenger develops chest discomfort and near-syncope after climbing back aboard from a Zodiac. Vitals card starts borderline and deteriorates if the team is slow. The case forces them to find the monitor and the resus drugs, decide on aspirin and a nitrate, attempt a reach-back consult, and make an evacuation call on a moving ship days from a hospital.

Step 6 · The gaps it exposed

Findings, sorted into the five dimensions and labelled by action. This is the exact set loaded by the “Load sample” button on the Gap Analysis Worksheet.

DimensionFindingAction
KitNo point-of-care labs (troponin, electrolytes, ionised calcium, lactate) to risk-stratify chest pain or guide resus.Add
Kit12-lead ECG present but a single lead set, off the charge rotation.Re-organise
KitMotion-sickness stock deep, but only sedating options for staff who must stay functional.Add
KitSame antiemetic in three places and two strengths.Consolidate
KitResuscitation core (oxygen, adrenaline, amiodarone, atropine, aspirin, nitrate) correct.Keep
PersonnelOnly the physician can run a monitored resuscitation; no trained second responder.Add
PersonnelCrew AED/CPR currency uneven and undocumented.Re-organise
FootprintNo defined space to assess a collapsed passenger; corridor too narrow for a litter with the ship rolling.Re-organise
FootprintOxygen and resus kit two decks from the likely collapse points (dining room, lecture theatre).Re-organise
TrainingTeam unfamiliar with the drug-locker layout; time lost finding adrenaline.Re-organise
TrainingNo shared handover script; reach-back consult was unstructured.Add
Comms/EvacMaritime radio-medical reach-back known only to the physician; number not posted.Add
Comms/EvacNo written PACE comms plan for a medical evacuation request from the ship.Add
The capability-dependency catch. The ship can give aspirin and could, in principle, thrombolyse, but it cannot measure a troponin, an electrolyte or a lactate. A cardiac smoke-test surfaces this immediately. If blood or a clot-dissolving drug is aboard, the point-of-care labs that guide them must be aboard too.

The lesson

The Quark kit already stocks the everyday load in depth, which the case log proves is where nearly all the work sits. The smoke-test set out to check the rarer half of the job: that the resuscitation core is complete, quick to find and possible to staff for a cardiac event, and it found the real gaps in point-of-care labs, in trained people, in the space and in the comms plan before a passenger ever arrives with chest pain. That is the whole return on an hour of simulation.

Data provenance. The 1,169-encounter demand model is a de-identified educational analysis of aggregate expedition-cruise medical logs (2008–2009), dataset provided by Dan Zak; no identifiers were extracted or stored. The kit figures are from a real ship's inventory (Quark Expeditions, Geographic North Pole 2008). Drug names and practices are of their era; the pattern of demand is not.